NHL Pacific: Predicting Finals Standings for 2012

The NHL Pacific has gone from the elite division in hockey last season to just the fourth-best so far this season. Not one of the teams currently owns a record in the top third of the Western Conference, and it is quite possible only two teams will play on after Easter Sunday this season.

But that does not mean there is not going to be some drama. The Los Angeles Kings are just two points behind the San Jose Sharks for the division lead and are hot. The Anaheim Ducks are also hot, threatening to climb past the two teams ahead of them who are inferior on paper. The Dallas Stars could move in either direction, being just two games back of the Kings and just two ahead of the Phoenix Coyotes.

So what should we expect the final standings to look like?

The San Jose Sharks have too much talent to be caught from behind by a team with fewer games remaining

1. San Jose Sharks (104): The current division leaders have more games remaining than any other teams in the division and still has fewer on the road than their only real contender, Los Angeles. They are expected to return to health soon after the All-Star break, enabling their power play and scoring to pick up as their penalty kill has been since before Christmas (35 of last 41).
2. Los Angeles Kings (100): A team playing over .700 hockey since Darryl Sutter took over behind the bench finally looks like the team it was supposed to be before the season—well, almost as they are still scoring only about two goals per game. If they can keep up the current pace, they will finish with 103 points. Considering how much travel they have coming (20 of their last 32 on the road), getting 42 points in their final 32 games (.656) will be commendable.
3. Dallas Stars (89): Because of ownership issues that prevent them from adding the talent necessary to push themselves over the top, Texas hockey will just barely miss the playoffs for the fourth year in a row. In fact, to even reach 90 points they will need to go as many points over .500 in the final 34 games as they did in the first 48, despite playing two more on the road when no team travels more over a season.
4. Anaheim Ducks (82): Having played poorly for long enough to get a coach with a Stanley Cup and a 36-26 playoff record overall fired, the formerly Mighty Ducks of Anaheim are more likely to be sellers than buyers at the trade deadline. However, they are two goals away from riding a 10-game winning streak, and will not give up any time soon. Thus, they probably will do little selling, especially since much of the veteran talent they might give up does not want to leave or is not in demand. A .500 record requires just a .574 point percentage the rest of the way, well within their talent level.
5. Phoenix Coyotes (80): Their lack of on-ice talent is finally catching up with the Desert Dogs. They are a couple forwards short of a legitimate top-six, one short in top-three defencemen and lack a true #1 goaltender. No matter how well Dave Tippett prepares this team, they will lose enough over the next four weeks for the league to give up on the debacle of desert hockey and sell off at least a couple older players from their scant elite class and fall to the division cellar.

To see where these teams will be seeded in the final conference standings, see my predictions at Bleacher Report.